Jonathan Hopkins (p), Simone Piras, Gurneet Kapour

Trifonas Kostopoulos

Many remote and rural regions of Europe are experiencing depopulation and aging population structures. These phenomena tend to develop alongside the loss of local jobs, generating vicious cycles of decline with profound implications for the resilience of communities and provision of services. However, this is not a uniform pattern, and we argue that the optimism of demographic prospects varies across remoter regions, due to spatial differences in economic activity and accompanying sectoral trends, as well as diverse patterns of economic linkages with other regions. Moreover, economic development may be transformed in future by the substantial volume of investment and step-change in emissions cuts needed to achieve net zero targets (d’Aprile et al., 2020); the extent to which these will benefit remote and disadvantaged areas is uncertain. We will present results from data-rich economic-demographic modelling of regional populations within Scotland, UK, for the period 2018-43, given two economic scenarios: a) ‘business-as-usual’ patterns of industry-level employment change within regions, modelled using past regional employment data (2004-18); and b) ‘net zero’, which additionally captures the potential implications of transition to a carbon-free economy on sectoral employment, based on published (Cedefop, 2021) insights on the impacts of the European Green Deal. Given the geographical disadvantages faced by sparsely populated areas due to low population density and scattered settlement patterns, the modelling will generate foresight for custom geographies, drawn based on access to people by their residents: many of which are remote from economic centres and their agglomeration-derived strengths. We find considerable heterogeneity in projected future employment within the 2018-43 period, across Scotland’s regions, as well as a positive impact of reducing carbon emissions on job numbers. The effect of these scenarios on patterns of regional demographic change will be explored. We will reflect on the importance of expanding access to economic benefits in order to support communities in remoter areas, and on the need to inform tailored interventions and policies using novel evidence.

References:

Cedefop (2021). The green employment and skills transformation: insights from a European Green Deal skills forecast scenario. Luxembourg: Publications Office. http://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2801/112540

d’Aprile, P., Engel, H., van Gendt, G., Helmcke, S., Hieronimus, S., Nauclér, T., Pinner, D., Walter, D., Witteveen, M. (2020). How the European Union could achieve net-zero emissions at net-zero cost,” December 3, 2020, Available at https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/sustainability/our-insights/how-the-european-union-could-achieve-net-zero-emissions-at-net-zero-cost (Accessed 11th March 2022)

Kerstin Tanis (p)

Jonathan Hopkins

Numerous studies have shown that even after controlling for differences in levels, outcomes of migrant minorities lag considerably behind those of natives. These gaps are labelled “ethnic penalties” and reflect the assumption that differences between natives and migrants that can-not be explained by socio-economic variables must be due to discrimination. While ethnic gaps are broadly documented in the labour market, research on the German housing market lags behind. This is surprising for three reasons: First, adequate housing is an important driver for successful integration. Second, affordable apartments, particularly in urban regions, are rarer than job vacancies, which offers even more room for discrimination. Third, by focusing on invitations to flat viewings for predefined applicant profiles, existing field experiments do not examine the actual but rather hypothetical housing outcomes. This paper aims to offer a broader view by expanding ethnic penalty literature to actual housing outcomes, employing an established labour economics method (Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition). Based on pooled data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (2017-2020), I decompose differences in hous-ing outcomes (e.g. m² per person) between natives and three migrant groups (first/second generation migrants, refugees) into an explained part due to differences in observable (human capital) predictors and an unexplained part, interpreted as discrimination. Moreover, I try to challenge this interpretation by looking explicitly at the role of sociocultural variables (e.g. lan-guage acquisition). Preliminary results suggest substantial gaps in housing outcomes between natives and migrants, but also within the migrant group. However, taking sociocultural varia-bles into account decreases the unexplained part significantly.

Sayantani (p)

Kerstin Tanis

This paper formulates a spatial hedonic equilibrium model that shows inter-city impacts of the introduction of work-from-home. Following Brueckner, Kahn and Lin (2021), the paper attempts to theoretically study how the introduction of work-from-home, which allows workers to relocate across cities while keeping their original jobs, impacts housing prices, population and employment levels. Extending Brueckner et al. (2021), the current paper divides the workforce into two types of workers, remote and non-remote, to allow for a more realistic work-from-home
model. Additionally, the model uses explicit functional forms for production and utility, resulting in closed-form equilibrium solutions conditional on the extent of productivity advantages, amenity advantages, and degree of complementarity between worker types. The current paper aims to examine whether the main results in Brueckner et al. (2021) still hold in the modified model.

Trifonas Kostopoulos (p), Vasiliki Tsaknaki

Sayantani Sayantani

Since the start of 2020, glaring headlines have called attention to the situation at Greece's borders. For years, Greece has hosted large numbers of asylum seekers and refugees fleeing conflict and poverty. In 2015, it was the main entry point for the more than 1 million people who sought safety in the European Union that year. Most individuals reach Greece from Turkey, risking their lives in dangerous sea crossings to Greek islands in the northern Aegean Sea. Although the number of arrivals has fallen significantly since the height of Europe's so-called "refugee crisis," thousands of people continue to arrive in Greece.
Today, Greece has become something like a holding pen for people seeking asylum. The 50,000-plus refugees in Greece can no longer legally travel deeper into Europe; most will likely remain in the country. Integration is key to ensuring that they build successful lives in what is their new home, a challenging task in any country but exacerbated in Greece because of its ongoing financial difficulties. The COVID-19 pandemic has set back years of progress in advancing children's health, education, and protection. These and other socioeconomic impacts have stretched country capacities to sustain and respond to the humanitarian needs of refugees and migrants.

People who have been awarded refugee status in Greece are forced to stay in refugee camps because the lack of substantial integration support means they have no way to make a living or rent their own accommodation. Withholding support to refugees, especially without providing measures to guarantee their basic needs are met and they can access services, is unlawful and undermines integration.

Examining Greece's response to the coronavirus pandemic and specifically the way their integration and settlement is handled, is essential to understanding the government's approach to asylum and migration and to assessing the integration focused measures that are being taken regarding the below-mentioned categories.
This research aspires to provide an outline of the approaches for and challenges to integration of international protection beneficiaries and applicants in Greece. It is based on emerging research findings and focuses on three policy areas, which are key to social and economic integration:
1. labour market,
2. healthcare and social welfare services,
3. education and training.