Maria Tsiapa (p)

Guang Yang

The concept of economic resilience attracts special attention especially after the recent financial crisis of 2008 and the covid19 crisis as it reflects the ability of national and regional economies to cope with the onset of adverse conditions by absorbing, resisting and recovering from shocks. Moreover, resilience is also associated with the capacity of economies with specific characteristics to withstand and recover better than others from the economic disturbances, a fact that has led to a policy discourse of analysts and policymakers. The economic resilience shows more peculiarity when regards production systems with a deviated behaviour of the European average, regional economies with serious spatial imbalances, or crises that dramatically shift the evolution of economies.

In line with this, the present paper studies the resilience of Greek (NUTS3 level) regions after the effect of a deep and prolonged economic crisis (and before a new crisis follows) which led the economies to significant shifts and rearrangements of their structures. The recovery period of Greece is an ongoing process that was interrupted by the covid19 crisis, for which it is unknown when and if the cycle of rebound (that is the period of full recovery) will be closed. However, this analysis, taking under consideration the protracted period of crisis (2008-13) and the first sub-period of recovery (before the new crisis that is 2014-20), attempts to study the resilience of these regions on this shorter-term time interval covering the need to be highlighted the first-stage responses and bellwether changes of regions.

Under this context, the paper, first, analyses how quickly and how far from the full recovery regions bounces back from the disturbance measuring the level of their (relative) resilience captured by both the part of resistance and recovery which are differentiated timely for each region. Second, it is investigated whether regional growth is more associated with a fast rebound or a slow but sustained recovery so as to emerge the more successful growth scenario of regions. Third, taking regions as part of complex adaptive systems they are investigated by an econometric spatial analysis those factors that led to the adjustment or eventually to the adaptation of regions with higher resilience intending to point out the ways and opportunities that have shown up in this new route identifying whether they are emanated from preconceived paths or from the development of new pathways.

Hiroyuki Shibusawa (p), Riki Tatekawa, Mingji Cui

Maria Tsiapa

Mt. Fuji, which is famous as the highest mountain in Japan, is an active volcano with active magma deep underground. Volcanic disasters are caused by large volcanic stones, pyroclastic flows, lava flows, snow-melting volcanic mudflows, small volcanic stones / ash, and volcanic gas. Large volcanic blocks, pyroclastic flows, lava flows, and snow-melting lahars occur with the eruption, and there is almost no time to evacuate. Since they are highly dangerous to life, they are positioned as highly important volcanic disasters in terms of disaster prevention measures. In the case of small fountains and volcanic ash, if the ash fall area is wide, emergency evacuation is difficult, and long-term economic damage and health damage are expected. Regarding the economic damage of volcanic ash, indirect damage may be more widespread. However, the damage to the surrounding area caused by the volcanic ash of the eruption of Mt. Fuji and the recovery process have not been sufficiently investigated.
On the other hand, relatively large-scale earthquakes occur frequently in Japan. In particular, there is concern that a Nankai Trough earthquake will occur in the near future. The Nankai Trough earthquake is expected to cause not only damage from the earthquake but also tsunami that will cause enormous damage to the Pacific coast.
In this study, we assume a tsunami derived from the Nankai Trough earthquake and an eruption of Mt. Fuji. The direct damage rate is estimated with reference to the hazard map, and the impact on the regional economy and its recovery process are analyzed. In this paper, we construct a dynamic interregional input-output model for prefectures and analyze the recovery process of single and compound disasters by simulation.

Katsuhito Nohara (p)

Hiroyuki Shibusawa

The increase in natural disasters such as typhoons and floods due to climate change causes damage to power distribution networks and other systems, resulting in power outages. These outages, unlike normal power outages, tend to be longer in duration. For example, in Japan, the average number of power outages per household/company per year from 2000 to 2018 was 0.22 per year, and the average duration of power outages per outage was 18.9 minutes in 2000~2017 excluding years without major disasters (the Great East Japan Earthquake and large typhoon attacks). On the other hand, for example, the average duration of power outages per outage in 2018 was 225 minutes, since big earthquakes and large typhoon attacks occurred. In the Great East Japan Earthquake, 2011, the outages continued for more than three months in some areas.
Power outages affect not only the use of various electrical appliances but also the supply of water and the usage of elevators in housing complexes. In particular, power outages in summer and winter make it difficult to use air conditioners and heaters, and the high temperatures in summer and low temperatures in winter have a significant adverse effect on health.
In this study, we implemented the internet survey to the households to ask the willingness to pay (WTP) a storage battery to reduce the hours/days of the outage under the several outage scenarios and explore the determinants of the WTP. Our main findings are (1) more risk-averse individuals are likely to pay more for a reduction in hours/days of the outage, (2) the value of lost load is about 196 billion yen.

Guang Yang (p), Xiaodong Ji, Jianmin Liu

Katsuhito Nohara

In the last two decades, in line with international trends, China's urbanization has accelerated and is characterized by metropolitan development and strengthened urban-rural linkages. Chinese government has termed the process as New-type urbanization to distinguish it from the urbanization during the general industrial period with significant population movement from rural areas to cities. It recognizes the growing complexity of local economic and socio-environmental challenges and stresses the importance of adopting a systematic approach to explore and identify “fit-for-purpose” policy solutions. Urban regions, i.e. metropolitan areas with significant rural linkages, have increasingly become a focal point of national development in China.

Since the outbreak of Covid-19 at the end of 2019, the pandemic has had a significant impact on the socioeconomic activities of urban regions in China. Due to a variety of disease prevention and control policies, local residents are often confined in their local areas with more localized consumer activities, and businesses have had to remodel their value chains to source more local production materials and sell more products locally. These short-term solutions have significantly helped local economies to survive during the pandemic. But questions remain, what could China do to further the resilience for development in its urban regions in the post-Covid-19 era? Are we able to do a better job in both recovering from the Covid-19 shock to build a stronger and most sustainable economy while also managing potential societal risks in the future?

Using both qualitive and quantitative approaches through case studies and available urban and regional data, the paper will adopt a systematic approach to analyze the recent urban region dynamics in China during the pandemic, and response mechanisms for disease control and restoring socio-economic orders during different stages of combating Covid-19. It aims to develop a conceptual framework to investigate growingly interlinked people, industrial value chain and socio-environmental issues in the post-Covid-19 era. Based on the systematic analysis, the paper will explore feasible policy options moving forward in building stronger and more resilient urban regions in China.