Dávid Csécsi (p), Balázs Szabó, Márton Péti

Zsombor Csata

A mass migration of Central and Eastern European (CEE) labour force towards Western Europe is a major demographic trend, which is mainly driven by differences in wages, and strengthens centre-periphery relations. Due to the labour shortage caused by emigration many CEE countries themselves have become target areas of labour force migration since the mid-2010s from regions lying east and south of the EU. Specific feature of these migration processes is that a large number of immigrants speak the same language and have the same ethnic background as the host population. This type of ethnocentric migration, where communities sharing the same ethnic background move between countries is a traditional feature in this macroregion where ethnic minority communities exist in a high density. Ethnocentric migration can have economic and cultural triggers, but it can also be motivated by kin-state policies or forced by disadvantageous political position of a minority community.

The situation of ethnic Hungarians is one of the most representative markers of this type of migration, as this population makes up large communities: more than two million ethnic Hungarians live in the seven neighbouring countries, with communities numbering well more than 100,000 in four countries. The research is based on the 2011 census data sets; the target group is the population born in neighbouring countries that moved to Hungary after 1985, and the focus is on the effects of this immigration on Hungarian society and the economy. Since a decrease has been observed in this immigration flow recently, population projections were also carried out in the frame of the research to predict the long-term demographic challenges.

The results show that in many respects the immigrants are more highly qualified, have a richer language knowledge, are generally in a better position in the labour market and are over-represented in key professions (e.g., teachers, nurses, doctors), thus contributing to alleviating labour shortages. Without migrants, Hungary's demographic trends would also be much worse: the country's population would have fallen below 10 million already in 2003 (in fact, it happened in 2011). Based on the projections of the present study, a possible stagnation in migration could result in a population 700,000 smaller by 2060 than would be expected under the baseline scenario of the official population projection of Hungary.

Biljana Gutic-Bjelica (p)

Dávid Csécsi

see extended abstract:

Using the main tenants of the Social Identity Theory, this paper contemplates role of religion and ethnic identity in dissolution of former Yugoslavia, with a specific focus on Bosnia and Herzegovina and its governmental system and security situation, accompanied with social and cultural consequences.

After the civil and interreligious war that Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) experienced in the last decade of the 20th century, this country made religion and ethnic affiliation as a pre-condition to all the political, social, educational and cultural undergoing processes.

Any significant demographic changes in BiH could have grave, if not dangerous, impact on fragile political and security situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina. This hypothesis is based on the fact that political system in BiH is a product of consociationalism, an institutional instrument used to manage conflicts among nations of different, even adversary, religious and ethnic groups.

Key words: identity, immigration, cohesion, consociationalism, ethnic conflict resolution, primordialism and instrumentalism.

Zsombor Csata (p), Amy Lui H., Roman Hlatky

Biljana Gutic-Bjelica

The literature suggests ethnic diversity has a negative effect on development. Yet, we also know that government policies – e.g., recognizing multiple languages in minority-sizable areas – can attenuate these effects. In this paper, we ask: What are the socioeconomic implications of minority language recognition? We leverage a legal stipulation in Romania as a quasi-experiment: Minority languages are recognized as official in areas where the minority constitutes more than 20% of the population. We argue the recognition of minority languages builds social trust and facilitates efficiency in economic exchanges – mollifying the otherwise detrimental consequences of diversity. Using data at the municipality level, we find that in areas where only Romanian is recognized, ethnic diversity has a negative effect on development – a result consistent with the literature. This effect, however, is absent in areas where a minority language is recognized. The implications suggest that lowering the threshold for language recognition could promote even further development.