Michael Cameron (p), Jacques Poot

Projecting populations for small areas or small sub-groups of the population presents a particular challenge. The cohort-component model is insufficient for these purposes because of the lack of sufficient data on the past components of population change (births, deaths, migration). While Bayesian population projection methods may offer some hope, the data and computational requirements for those models are high, and for small population sub-groups the results will almost entirely be driven by the prior assumptions.

New Zealand is incredibly ethnically diverse. In the 2013 Census, Statistics New Zealand recorded over 80 ethnic groups that each had at least 1,000 members, in a total population of around 4.2 million. In the Census, people can select their ethnic affiliation – it is not strictly based on race or descent. Moreover, many people report multiple ethnic affiliations.

Ethnic diversity in New Zealand has increased over successive Censuses, because of increasingly diverse immigration flows and inter-ethnic relationships. This increasing diversity presents interesting challenges for policy makers, businesses, social services, and communities. Developing a better understanding of future ethnic diversity, particularly at the sub-national level, is therefore important.

The official ethnic population projections for New Zealand have recently been updated in 2017. These official projections are based on a Bayesian stochastic population projection methodology. They include projections for the ‘major’ ethnic groups (New Zealand European or Other, Maori, Pacific, Asian, and Middle Eastern/Latin American/African), as well as for the first time several of the larger ‘Level 2’ ethnicities (Chinese, Indian, Samoan).

In this paper, we first use a modified Hamilton-Perry projection method based on inter-Censal cohort change ratios and child-woman ratios to produce national-level population projections for 37 ethnic groups from Level 3 of Statistics New Zealand’s ethnicity classification for a 20-year time horizon. We then extend the model down to the sub-national level for 16 regions for a more limited number of ethnic groups (including the major multiple-group affiliations).

We find that, while it is possible to use the Hamilton-Perry method to develop projections for small groups (some of which have initial populations of fewer than 1,000), the method can lead to unrealistic results for some populations and should be used and the results interpreted with care. We illustrate this with particular examples of sub-national populations where the results are somewhat unexpected.

Dionysia Lambiri , Bianca Biagi (p)

Following the outbreak of the refugee crisis in Europe in the summer of 2015, the City of Athens has found itself in the forefront of an unprecedented crisis for both Greece and Europe. As thousands of refugees and migrants arrived to Greece on their journey to other European countries, Athens became the biggest European city of transit and has seen the greatest influx of refugees.

Today, as the number of migrants and refugees that will remain in the country – and in Athens in particular – still remains uncertain, it is of paramount importance to keep track and have a full understanding of the constantly changing profile of the migrant population within the geographical boundaries of the Municipality, in order to design urban policies for their inclusion and integration, while also safeguarding social cohesion in the local neighbourhoods of the city.

The present paper uses a unique dataset which is based on field surveys of refugees living in the city of Athens and interviews of local residents of neighbourhoods in Athens. It provides rich information on the sociodemographic characteristics and the quality of life of the refugee/immigrant population living in Athens, but also on the perceptions and possible challenges arising from the coexistence of the Athenian population and the urban refugee and migrant populations. We make use of this data to empirically examine what determines local perceptions regarding the possibilities for inclusion and integration of the newly arrived populations, while also looking at geographical variations in perceptions based on the ‘visibility’ of refugees and migrants at the local/neighbourhood level.

Samuel Ettouati (p), Alexandra Schaffar

The aim of this paper is to study the regional migration of foreign citizens and immigrants in France. First, it analyses whether the decision to migrate relies upon individual characteristics. Second, it examines the ways in which the economic, social and environmental characteristics of the French territories determine the immigrants’ choice of localization. The paper draws upon a unique database of French inhabitants, with information about their personal attributes and locational choices for 2014. It also uses an original database with locational characteristics for the French territories at the level of the 364 “employment area”. The paper builds empirical Probit and Heckman models dealing with selection bias and endogeneity bias issues. The paper explores the assumption that immigrants usually prefer large agglomerations and industrial areas and that they relocate differently than the rest of the French population. There are no other studies in France on such issues, since data hasn’t been available until recently.

Key Words: Residential mobility - Foreign citizens – Probit model - France

Marcin Gospodarowicz (p), Danuta Kołodziejczyk

Assuming that man is the main cause of development processes and the "consumer" of its effects, aging and migration are two of the main challenges the EU is facing, with each of them having a significant regional dimension. Poland is characterized by a low fertility rate, increasing life expectancy, decreasing mortality, which results in a strong tendency to decline in the number of inhabitants and an aging population. In the characteristics of these processes, there are distinct territorial differences and a clear spatial polarization between cities and rural areas. In the regional context, only in 12 NUTS-2 regions in 2005-2015 the number of inhabitants increased. The decrease in the number of inhabitants occurred mainly in the eastern regions and in small towns up to 20 th. inhabitants, which can be called "poles of demographic problems". These areas are characterized by intensive aging and low indicators of the working age population. The occurring demographic changes may create tensions between various age, ethnic and spatial units (city-village). Therefore, the inclusion of demographic topics in the programming of regional policy with the launch of special initiatives is necessary to maintain balanced regional development in Poland. The paper presents an analysis of the emerging demographic problems in Poland and the directions of these changes in retrospective and prospective fashion in the context of another European Union countries. It describes the state and structure of population in 2005-2015 and identifies the main reasons for these changes and the cohesion policy response to demographic changes. Based on the clustering analysis areas with similar levels of development and demographic trends has been identified. It also presents spatial variation of selected demographic phenomena and processes occurring in Poland in terms of NUTS 2. For the presentation of results in territorial context, tools for spatial statistics and cartographic methods are used. The most important conclusions stemming from this research indicates that emerging demographic issues in EU countries should become important priorities for cohesion policy intervention.