Sarah Nhlapo Mosidi , Herman Geyer , Manie Geyer (p)

This paper tests the onset of the second demographic transition amongst the four main subpopulations in Tshwane, Johannesburg and Ekurhuleni, three metropolitan cities in Gauteng, South Africa. Extracting and analysing a plethora of explanatory variables from the 1996, 2001 and 2011 censuses, the results indicate that some sections of the population have indeed entered the second demographic transition. Otherwise, the results were mixed. Fertility has generally declined among all groups. Fertility remains above replacement level amongst cohabiting and married women in the black and brown communities. But there are also results that deviate from the norm. Blacks, for instance have a high postponement index and a high proportion never marries and but fertility remains above replacement level. High value is placed on children among black and brown women which keeps fertility rates above replacement level. Below replacement fertility and high childlessness indicate decline in value of children among whites and Asian women. On the other hand, low postponement indices and low proportions of single women indicate a high regard for traditional family values and norms among these two groups.

Peter Nijkamp, Masood Gheasi (p), Duncan Roth, Pieter Johannes Andree

The discussion on internal migration has gained momentum in recent years in Germany. This is because Germany, like many other developed countries, faces a growth in the number of older people. This leads to an increase in the median age of population and a decrease in the share of younger people relative to older cohorts. But most important is the fact - as a result of a negative not only growth rate in the population
- the cities labor force will decline in all German regions. Therefore, internal migration may have a signifcant impact in shaping the social characteristics of different regions and cities in Germany. This paper aims to provide new insights on the nature of causal interactions in migration decisions. Based on a multivariate time series from internal migration of both Germans and foreigners between 392 cities in Germany in the period 2000 - 2014. We detail the model and discuss stability and Impulse Response Functions. While standard approaches focus on final equations or echelon forms, we discuss inference on a unique representation as judged by a penalized Student's t-criterion that maintains generality in the limit.

Maryna Tverdostup , Tiiu Paas (p)

The paper explores the gender wage gap among immigrant and native-born population in relation to the productive human capital, measured by the literacy and numeracy cognitive skills, and its on-job utilization, approximated by the skill use at work. The aim of the paper is to extend knowledge on how gender wage gap as well as skills and their use in European labour markets differ among immigrants and native-born population. These new knowledge can be used by developing policy measures allowing to better integrate immigrants’ and female labour force into working activities. Using the data from the Program of International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC), we analyse the wage disparities across genders and immigration status in fourteen European countries estimating cross-section and pooled multivariate regression models. Our major hypothesis predicts that gender gap patterns differ across immigrant population and natives, as there are systematic differences in characteristics of native- and foreign-born females selected into employment. Furthermore, we assume that skill use intensity largely contribute to the observed wage differentials. The empirical results indicate, that, indeed, gender wage gap patterns differ significantly in the samples of immigrants and natives. Pooled data estimates suggest that immigrant gender gap is lower, that the one measured for native population. When controlling for both skill level and skill use intensity behind other socio-demographic characteristics of individuals, cross-country assessment revealed significant variation in the gender gap estimates. In majority of countries, the gender wage gaps are statistically insignificant for immigrants, however, economically and statistically significant for natives. Cognitive skills and intensity of skill use play an important role in explaining the wage differences. However, considerable differences in cross-country estimates suggest that country-specific characteristics and selection of immigrants reflect on the wage outcomes of both immigrants and natives.

Shin-kun Peng (p)

Given the increasing prominence of migrant workers with remittances from developing to developed countries, this paper investigates the degree of trade freeness on the migration as well as its effect on welfare and income inequality. First, we develop a modified Melitz model (2003) incorporated with Krugman (1991) core-periphery framework associate with occupation self-selection model by Lucas (1978) to prove the existence of an equilibrium which the physical workers migrate from the South to the North while a part of the migrants’ wages is sent back to support their families in the South. Then, we examine it impact on the welfare for each country, and study the implications of this migration policy. We find that when the migration is allowed, welfare of two countries is improved. In addition, when the attachment cost of the migrant decrease, more members of each household in the South have the higher incentive to migrate to North. And the real wages of both entrepreneurs and workers in North also rise. Finally, the effect of globalization (i.e., the trade cost of manufacturing good decrease) on income inequality between entrepreneurs and workers within North will become worse (better) when the relative population between South and North is large (small).

Alexandre Porsse (p)

Population ageing is accelerating in Brazil as consequence of the rapid decline in fertility and mortality population rates over the last decades. According to projections by IBGE, the working age population will start to decline from 2035 and the share of elderly people into population will increase from 6.8% in 2010 to 26.8% in 2060. This paper aims to investigate the extent to which the Brazilian economic structure and growth could be affect by demographic transition considering the transmission effects through labor market. We develop a multisectoral CGE model where labor is disaggregated by age cohorts to simulate the impact of demographic transition on Brazilian economy. The database was calibrated for 2010 and the economic flows are fully disaggregated for 65 sectors. The demographic projections produced by IBGE for the period 2010-2060 are used to estimate structural changes in the composition of labor force and the CGE model is used to evaluate the economic impact of these demographic shocks. The simulations are carried out considering that participation rate of working age population remains fixed over the time and across sectors and that age structure of labor evolves according to the changes in age structure of the entire population. Two demographic scenarios are simulated using the CGE model. The first one is named “Transition Phase” and simulates changes in labor structure by age cohort based on demographic projections for the period 2010-2035. This phase characterizes a period where the youngest age cohorts of labor force decrease, and the entire working age population stabilizes. The second one is named “Ageing Phase” and simulates changes in labor structure by age cohort based on demographic projections for the period 2035-2060. This phase characterizes a period where mostly of age cohorts decrease, only the elderly age cohorts increase, and the entire working age population decreases. The results show that GDP increases during the transition phase and decrease during the ageing phase. The economic sectors, especially those producing industrial goods, tends to be more capital intensive during the ageing phase, but economic growth as a whole reduces due the impact of demographics shocks on the sectoral cost of production caused by the increase in price of labor by age cohorts. These simulation results provide an initial picture on which economic sectors would be more sensitive to demographic transition.