Timo Mitze (p), Torben Dall Schmidt, Jens Clausen, Bjarne Madsen

Modelling migration decisions in a labor market context has received widespread attention in the empirical regional science literature. According to the neoclassical migration model, individuals are expected to respond to relative changes in local labor market conditions in the origin and destination region thereby maximizing their expected income. We take up this basic neoclassical model setup when focusing on migration choices along the different phases of an individual’s life cycle. Specifically, we identify six distinct life events as i) commencing qualifying education, ii) graduating from qualifying education, iii) having a partnership, iv) having children, v) children leaving home and vi) leaving the labor market. An essential advantage from considering these specific life events over the life cycle compared to previous contributions, such as decomposing migrants by age groups, is that it offers the opportunity to test in how far local labor market indicators and other socio-economic factors at the origin and destination location influence migration choices differently over the life cycle for these life events. The paper therefore tests the baseline hypothesis that the relative importance of such migration signals, especially those in a labor market dimension, differ over life phases. Using register data for all migratory movements within Denmark, we first group these flows into the six non-overlapping event groups and then aggregate the data to the sub-municipal level. Given that the aggregated migration flow data is characterized by excessive zero flows for pairs of sub-municipalities, we estimate the event group-specific versions of the neoclassical migration model by means of a zero-inflated Poisson and negative binomial regressions. Our empirical results reflect expected triggers of migrations at different unique life-event, while others points to new and important insights. For instance, we find that local unemployment rate differences are only an important migration signal for migrants in the life phase of graduation from education, while the migration patterns of couples, for instance, is positively correlated with the level child care expenses at the sub-municipal level. Persons leaving the labor market and families whose last child is leaving home are observed to be attracted by geographic locations with a high density of summer houses (mainly touristic areas). Among the general impediments to migration, we find across all event groups that the geographical distance between pairs of sub-municipalities significantly reduces migration flows. These results have important policy implications from the perspective of demographic change for different parts of Denmark.

Gennadi Kazakevitch (p), Luc Borrowman, Patrick Healey

What is homelessness? – A number of definitions, singling out different categories of homeless are used in academic literature and policy documents: living improvised dwellings, tents or sleeping out; living in supported accommodation (includes shelters) for the homeless, or in transitional housing; staying temporarily with other households (including with friends and family); staying in boarding houses or other temporary lodging; or living in severely overcrowded conditions. What are the predictors of homelessness across regions in a developed nation? – We consider two categories of structural variables (predictors): socio-economic characteristics of homeless people (weekly income; age; request for assistance; being a recent migrant to the country; being indigenous; education; marital status; and household’s composition); and regional characteristics (availability of public and private social housing; weekly rent; rent/income ratio; vacancy rate; and unemployment rate).

By performing seemingly unrelated regressions modeling for separate interpretations of homelessness, we find that very few predictors of homelessness are shared across the separate categories of the homeless population. Furthermore, the impact of structural variables increases in significance as the structural environment deteriorates. The difference in predictors across categories of homelessness explains why previous studies, which have used similar data but employed different singe definitions, yield different results. One important difference in the Australian context is the effect of the proportion of indigenous people within a population of a particular region. We identified under which definitions this variable is significant.

Our results provide justification for both a need for universally shared definition of homelessness, and a targeted approach to homeless and housing policies, which take into account the structure of homeless population in an area.

Tialda Haartsen (p), Aileen Stockdale

Research into population change in European rural areas has mainly focused on youth outmigration and the in-migration of newcomers. However, stayers, especially young adult stayers (17-30 yrs), are of key importance for maintaining sustainable and liveable communities in rural areas, now and in future. This importance results from several contemporary trends: ageing and population stagnation; increasing percentages of people living in cities, and depopulation in the more peripheral rural areas. These trends impact on the regional economic development potential of rural areas and on the quality of life of rural inhabitants. Newcomers are often presented to have a crucial role in regional development by facilitating entrepreneurship, fostering social networks and vitality. However, with declining rural populations, a shift in focus to the potential role of stayers is inevitable.
In this presentation, we will put rural stayers in the spotlight. Staying often is devalued as a product of constraints (stuckness), a 'failure to leave' or as being 'left behind'. We will take a different approach by portraying staying as a positive choice (stillness). For this, we use interview data on the process(es) and experiences of staying, of both young adult rural stayers and rural newcomer-stayers (5-10 years after their move to the countryside) in The Netherlands and Northern Ireland. Analyses of these data has revealed that staying is a process that is re-negotiated over time and in different life course stage. We will also present different stayer types with their own specific rural connections and experiences.

Declan Jordan (p)

There is strong empirical evidence to support the implications of the new economic geography models that real wage differentials are the primary motivation in migrants’ destination choice, though increasingly, alternative alternative economic factors, such as relative employment and housing availability are being explored. More recently there is growing interest in the effect of cultural diversity and cultural distance on destination choice for migrants. This suggests that migrants are more likely to choose to move to locations that are already more culturally diverse. This may indicate a region or locality that is more accepting of difference and open to new migrants. It may also reflect a preference for migrants to live close to other similar cultural groups. Using data from the 2006 and 2011 population censuses in Ireland, this paper estimates the effect of diversity in each of 3,400 electoral districts in 2006 on the composition of nationalities in the same electoral district in 2011. Diversity is measured using a Blau Index based on nationality composition of electoral district population. The paper also controls for other socio-economic factors of each electoral district that may affect location decisions of migrants, and also tests the extent to which deviation from the average cultural composition affects migrants’ choice. The paper also explores differences in effects between urban and rural locations.