Dani Broitman (p), Boris A. Portnov

Asthma is a chronic disease characterized by recurrent attacks of wheezing and breathlessness, known to be associated, among other factors, with a prolonged exposure to ambient air pollution. Several previous studies investigated the interaction between air pollution exposure and childhood asthma using data on the aggregate level of statistical areas, without taking into account differences in individual exposures of children residing in different parts of the same region. This research focus simultaneously on the incidence and prevalence rates of childhood asthma as spatially dependent variables of several locational, socio-economic and air pollution variables. As an alternative to traditional spatial aggregation methods, we use the double kernel density (DKD) smoothing method, according to which events of interest are transformed into continuous density surfaces and then normalized by the density of the entire population from which the events of interest are drawn. In the study, we use three sets of observations : residential locations of all children living in the area, residential locations of schoolchildren diagnosed with asthma (asthma prevalence) and residential locations of schoolchildren diagnosed with asthma in 2014 (asthma incidence). We tested the applicability of the DKD approach to multivariate analysis of asthma incidence and prevalence for estimation consistency and sensitivity, optimizing the kernel bandwidth and neighborhood proximity matrices for spatial dependency analysis of asthma childhood. As the analysis reveals the distance from petrochemical industrial facilities and from the sea shore are negatively correlated with asthma prevalence, but results regarding incidence are less conclusive. The correlations between asthma prevalence and incidence with specific air pollution variables are ambiguous, excepting for PM2.5. Our conclusion is that the DKD method is a valid an alternative to zonal approaches used in empirical studies in which individual observations are represented by point data.

Eiji Ohno (p), Masafumi Morisugi, Hiroshi Sao, Ryuta Mori, Shuo Yang, Kazunori Nakajima, Naoki Sakamoto, Hisayoshi Morisugi

Regarding measurement of benefits of public investment to reduce the mortality risk, a method using the value of statistical life (VSL) calculated by dividing the willingness to pay (WTP) for reducing the mortality risk by the amount of risk reduction has been put to practical use in the western countries. In Japan, a value of approximately 30 million yen based on "medical fee + benefit loss + consolation money = total loss" provisionally has been used as "value of life" in practice. In addition, estimation of VSL based on WTP is also conducted, and since fiscal 2009 the value of 226.07 million yen has been used for public project evaluation by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, but research accumulation is not yet enough. In this study, VSL has been calculated, by estimating the willingness to accept compensation (WTA) for allowing an increase of heat stress mortality risk by conducting the contingent valuation (CV) survey, and by dividing this WTA by the amount of risk reduction. There we have conducted a closed-type CV survey for adult men and women aged 20 to 69 throughout the country through a web research company. Based on 3,501 response data obtained there, we estimated WTA and VSL by each prefecture of Japan.
As a result, we have estimated some values of WTA for an increase of heat stress mortality risk; the values in the nearer future till 2050 are 1,798 yen per year (Okinawa) - 5,850 yen per year (Nagasaki); the values in the further future till 2100 are 7,476 yen per year (Okinawa) - 13,289 yen per year (Nagasaki). Based on these WTA, we have calculated some values of VSL; the values in the nearer future till 2050 are 68.81 million yen per year (Akita) - 677.23 million yen per year (Okinawa); the values in the further future till 2100 are 41.08 million yen per year (Akita) - 254.60 million yen per year (Okinawa). From the result, we can see the difference by each prefecture of Japan; the values of VSL in the south region (warm region) are higher than those in the north region (cool region).

Edson Domingues (p), Aline Magalhaes, Flaviane Santiago, Kenia de Souza, Debora Cardoso

Fast changes in consumer preferences and behavior have motivated discussions about their possible environmental and social impacts. This paper analyses the sustainable consumption in Brazil, highlighting the consumption profile of sustainable products by income level and household composition. This research is based on data from "What Brazilians think about the environment and sustainable consumption", carried out in 2012 by the Brazilian Ministry of the Environment, and on the 2008-2009 Brazilian Household Budget Survey. We used a Computable General Equilibrium model to project scenarios in which household income growth, economic growth, population dynamics, productivity and energy efficiency gains are explicitly modeled. We also incorporated a dynamic perspective for preferences for organic products consumption. The policy implications are discussed regarding the importance of understanding possible changes in organic products consumption pattern and its economic impacts.

Gilvan Guedes, Kenya Noronha, Edson Domingues, Aline Magalhães (p), Débora Cardoso, Kênia Souza, Flaviane Santiago, Mônica Andrade

Global climate and environmental change have aggravated in the last decades. Increased health stress is one of the most alarming consequences of these changes. Although many studies have tried to estimate the direct and indirect consequences of a warmer and dryer environment for the economy, both at a global and local scale, a smaller number of studies have addressed the mid and long term health implications of these changes at a regional level. Building on their previous work, this study takes a multi-stage approach to estimate the climate-related consequences on cardiovascular/respiratory and infectious/vectorborne diseases, morbi/mortality, and labor supply in Brazil. Combining Spatial Bayes Smoothing, Spatial Econometrics, Global Burden of Disease data, and a Regional Computable General Equilibrium model, this study estimates the future development of climate-sensitive health disorders, their implications for morbi-mortality, and the consequences for labor supply and productivity for the Brazilian states and regions from 2010 to 2040. Our results suggest that partial effects of climate change on health and labor supply is higher than the total impact (from general equilibrium estimates). Increased morbi-mortality and labor loss would be higher for vector-borne and infectious than for non-communicable diseases, and mostly concentrated in less developed regions of the country.