Lukáš Makovský (p), Ondřej Bayer

Xun Zhang

In this paper we focused on comparing 2 Prague's possible growth scenarios to the year 2030. The firs scenario is based on current "1999 zoning plan" and the second scenario on proposed "Metropolitan plan" that is currently in the stage of preparation and that should replace the "1999 zoning plan". The main difference of these plans is that the new Metropolitan plan proposes more compact and more intensive development.
The aim of the analysis is to compare expected negative externalities of individual car transport and public transport costs for both concerned scenarios and also to compare land-use characteristics of defined concentric zones.
The whole analysis is done on Prague empirical data and projections. Among sources are real-estates trends data, 2011 Census data, population spatial behavior data by cell-phone service provider, public transport operation costs data, current land-use, proposed zoning plans restrictions, population, economic and real estates prognosis.
The analysis was processed in GIS software. The subresults elaborated in scale of Elementary statistical units were analyzed by statistical tools to propose general model for predicting parameters of considered 2030 scenarios.
One of subresult to mention is difference of population distribution between 2 scenarios. Based on our model we expect 20 000 more resident will live in the central part of the city in scenario based on Metropolitan plan. Conversely these 20 000 residents are allocated in the city edge zone in scenario based on 1999 zoning plan. This spatial difference is mostly responsible for differences in the results.
The results based on our models predict savings both on public transport costs and individual car transport. If the Metropolitan plan is implemented, the savings in 15 years should reach approximately 0,5% of total public transportation costs and at a same time externalities of individual car transport should decrease by 0,88% that equals 1,97 million Euros annually that is caused by expected 128 194 reduction of daily commute driven vehicle kilometers.
Although savings might seem not to be significant, it is important to mention that they are caused only by 15 years of alternative development and more significant savings are expected in long-term horizon that should be analyzed in further research.

Julia Janke (p)

Lukáš Makovský

See extended abstract

Xun Zhang (p)

Julia Janke

This paper studies the effect of transport infrastructure on inventory using firm level data combined with road information. Different from previous studies, we measure a firm’s accessible transport infrastructure using road area of both local and neighboring cities and focus on the transmission channels through which transport infrastructure affects inventory. Our theoretical framework highlights that under demand uncertainty, roads affect inventory through market expansion and reduction in sourcing cost of input. The two transmission channels are also confirmed in our empirical evidence. This paper enhances the literature by providing a comprehensive framework for analyzing the relationship between transport infrastructure and inventory and more importantly, on estimating the causal effect of infrastructure on economic scale and efficiency.