Abdellatif Khattabi (p), Driss Zammouri

The Ourika is a sub watershed of the Tensift river basin located in Midwest of Morocco. The geomorphological constitution of Ourika watershed is favorable to runoff and development of important floods because of its steep slopes, low permeability substratum and poor vegetation cover. Floods results generally in serious infrastructure damage, isolation of some localities and destruction of agricultural land. The Ourikavalley has already experienced major floods in the past, but the most important and deadly one dates back to 1995. In November 2014, Morocco suffered a major atmospheric depression, which caused significant rainfall due to its height, intensity and Geographical extension. During the last week of November 2014, the upper Ourikawatershed received exceptional heavy rainfall that gave rise to a large flood resulting in extensive damage to infrastructure, agricultural plots, dwellings and commercial services.In this study we try to assess the direct and indirect impacts of this flood as well as the corresponding economic costs.The assessment method consists of counting and inventorying the damage caused and evaluating the corresponding monetary costs. Satellite imagery was used to visualize the physical extent of damages by comparing the pre-flood images to the post-flood images. Then interviews were conducted with various actors and victims of the flood to validate the maps produced and to collect the information necessary to monetize the damages recorded.The lands destroyed or wasted amounts to 23.14 ha, representing an economic cost of about 28 million DH. The tourism services’ infrastructure spoiled in the valley was of 21 units, corresponding to an economic loss of the order of 3 million DH. For road infrastructure, there was a loss of 8.78 km of the only road linking the Ourika watershed to the city of Marrakech, resulting in a total cost of about 7.5 million DH. Infrastructure of damaged homes and public buildings corresponds to a cost of around 306 million DH.Faced with the severity of floods damages and the lack of regulation of the installation of various infrastructures along the river, public authorities must intervene to reduce the risk of flooding. The cost of prevention is surely high, but it may be lower than the cost of ongoing damages.

Anahit Harutyunyan (p), Ani Khalatyan, Vehanush Marukhyan

Growing importance of environmental issues at global and regional levels including pollution of water, air etc., and as a result the global warming and climate change are considered as effective factor for power generation. Power generation is among the most important factors causing risks in increasing the volumes of emissions.
Usually, decisions on environmental issues are complex and includes multidisciplinary knowledge concerning to the natural, physical social sciences, politics and ethics. It is crucial for the environmental decision makers to rely on different experimental tests, computational models, and tools to assess ecological risks associated with environmental stressors and abatement strategies on risk reduction. Nowadays, applying these tools is also becoming increasingly difficult, as there are many emerging risks (e.g., climate change, nanotechnology, etc.) for which information is not available and decisions should be made under significant uncertainty.
Republic of Armenia is almost entirely dependent on importing energy. The only domestic energy resource in use is hydropower, providing about 30% of energy demands, and the single nuclear power plant. The Environmental and Social Risks cover the power generation industry and includes power stations and the use of fossil fuels, nuclear power and renewable energy sources: such as hydroelectric power, wind farms, geothermal energy, photovoltaic and energy generation from biomass and waste. Feasibility assessments should also focus on interface issues, such as connection to the existing electric power system, evaluation the compliance of resource and technology (particularly, that is core aspect for investigation of biomass options), and identifying environmental concerns and regional constraints.
Armenia’s energy strategy (Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP)) prepared in 2003 clearly emphasizes (among others): “Maintaining and strengthening energy independence by developing indigenous and alternative energy sources and promoting energy efficiency. Regarding the development of indigenous resources, priority should be given to developing renewable energy production.”
Armenia's Energy Law, which was enacted in 1997 and revised by the national assembly in 2001 states among others (Article 5) that the main principles of the state policy in the energy sector are:
- Efficient use of local energy resources and energy renewables and the application of relevant economic and legal measures for that purpose;
- Ensuring energy security;
- Promotion of the energy independence of the country, including the diversification of local and imported energy resources and ensuring maximal use of the capacities;
- Ensuring environmental security”.

Alexander Pelyasov (p)

Super sensitivity to the time of the Northern Resource Economics had been studied under the examples of the oil-producing Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug, and gold-producing Magadan region of the Russian Federation on the half a century and more historic panorama. In the Northern Resource economy age means degree of the exhaustion of the main natural assets. Settlement patterns, corporate behavior, local governance model, investment policy and many other features do differ in both cases.
Contemporary toolbox to deal with age challenges of the Northern Resource economy should include externalities, proximity, social embeddedness and other concepts from methodological platform of the endogenous economic growth. Let us stress – on analyzing resource depletion effect in the regional economy we prefer to deal not with traditional impact analysis, but externalities analysis that is unintentional, atmospheric non-linear effects not by market interaction but through the media, through communication etc. And predominantly non-market and usually small Northern economy is based entirely on non-market externalities of trust, co-operative, mutual aid cross-subsidization, and others, and different monopoly effects.
Traditional clustering can be understood as an attempt to overcome the decreasing returns in the exhausted province into increasing returns on knowledge and innovations. SME’s activity can be understood as change in the general size of the firms in the region after the launch of depletion stage. In the young age of the resource province big corporations usually dominate. But under the exhaustion of the natural assets small firms do play a big role, as big firms out-migrate to new resource provinces with “fresh” assets. Same changes under the evolution of the Northern resource province from the young to the old age we can see in the settlement patterns, demographic structure of the population, intensity of external and internal migration.
In the old northern resource economy big cities do play enormously important role: the create the very opportunity to part with direct linear link “resource cycle-population cycle” common in the Northern nature. Cities in the Northern resource economy are phenomena that for the first time here can develop on their own and non-resource, but human potential like knowledge, creativity, entrepreneurship.
What is to be done in the old-aged northern resource regions. The answer is in the rejuvenation mechanisms like 1) New space exploration (resource development of the new frontier areas); 2) Innovative modernization of the old resource activities (deepening); 3) Economic diversification (widening).

Vehanush Marukhyan (p)

Introduction
The research is dedicated to the modeling and analysis electric power market of RA in the context of supply chain management, to develop a supply chain network model for electric power, as well as for modeling several different types of decision-makers' behavior in the electricity market under condition of uncertainties. In fact, there are numerous risks related to the electricity supply chain networks that comprise hundreds of companies with several tiers. Decision-making problems in energy markets are faced with uncertainty, which significantly impacts on price, demand, intermittent production, equipment availability, etc. Moreover, in particular cases the information about electricity consumption could be inadequate or have an interval or fuzzy description. Thus, that is necessary to create models, methods and mechanisms that allow efficient management of energy flows within different risk scenarios.
Objectives
The main purpose of the paper is to conduct impact analysis of risk factors in electricity supply chain management of RA. The objectives are followings:
• The problems which relate to the decision-makers' behaviors and their relationships in the electricity market of RA.
• Identifying supply chain system process in the risky situations and production activities.
• Analyzing optimal flow distribution by minimizing risks/threats and maximizing opportunities/profits of the system.

Methods
We used econometric linear regression and nonlinear regression analysis. We used multiple regression analysis to estimate electricity demand of population. We used regressions based on fuzzy logic to forecast RA electric consumption under the uncertainties, affiliation triangular functions have been built for both dependent and independent variables. To get rid of uncertainties we used Weighted average method of defuzzification.
To respond to the risks of supply chain management, we applied to likelihood or probability method for qualitative and quantitative assignment, conditional value at risk, and an efficient Monte Carlo simulation method, as well as the sample average approximations was adopted.
Results
Conclusions are as follows:
• we grouped the whole field of supply chain risks into a risk catalog, and then we used it as a resource for managing the risks and make different decisions in the energy market of RA,
• we derived equilibrium electricity flow in the electricity market of RA based on the supply chain network approach, and optimal weighted average tariff of sales,
• we illustrated risk management scenarios according to the optimal production and distribution quantities of electric power network of RA.