David Burg (p), Yitzhak Omer

The large cities of the world exhibit s-curve patterns of growth (Mulligan, 2006). Indeed, populations tend to expand rapidly but with time the rate of growth decreases as the effects of constraints on the system become more significant. The aim of here is to revisit and refine this approach. A detailed dynamical analysis was performed on population data of cities using the logistic model: P(t)=K/[1+e^{-(ln(81)/a)(t-tm)}]
where 'a' is the characteristic time for the process to grow from 10% to 90% (Meyer et al., 1999) and 'tm' is the inflection point bifurcating exponential and logarithmic phases. 'K' is the upper population limit; however, nonlinear fitting methods tend to underestimate this value. To overcome this, we implement a reparameterization, accounting for the coupling between a, K and the maximum growth rate, s:
K=4sa/ln(81) (see Coren, 2001).
This substitution allows fitting the function to the linear phase of the logistic curve giving better estimates for the upper bound on population size when the process has not yet saturated. Consequentially, the growth of each city can be individually characterized by the four model parameters: a, s K, and tm.
These patterns are demonstrated for large cities around the world. Also, the case of Israel where precise historical data are extant from the establishment of nearly all cities is studied. Our results confirm the hypothesis that cities as defined by administrative boundries, globally and in Israel , exhibit recurring patterns consistent with the logistic model. Also, Metropolitan Areas which include suburbia are still developing at rates parsimonious with the logistic model. While each city has unique parameter values, comparison alludes to similarities of the growth rate constant among cities. Further, data of many areas show decreasing growth rates in their urban areas thus, indicating an inertia influencing entire regions important in the context of development of peripheral territories. Interestingly, a transient decline is observed among some of the largest cities from and different countries after reaching a maximal population level, which are also concomitant in time. Taken together, these results may give insight into the dynamics of city growth for civic and national policy and perhaps constitute an empirical construct for representing modern urbanization, in general, and for Israel in particular.

Ferenc Szilagyi (p)

The modern Romanian urban system appeared in the nineteenth, and partly during the first half of the twentieth century. The most important cities became significant in these periods of time, but the modern and actual city system was created in many steps, mostly in the Communist-era. Cities with a regional importance were the first to appear, followed by cities with a subregional or county-level importance. After 1968 the present-day system of small towns was formed. After 1990 the urban system was made up of the following categories: regional cities with a population of more than 300,000 people, big cities with a population of 100,000-300,000 people, medium-level cities with a population of 50,000-100,000 people, big towns (25,000-50,000 people) and small towns (under 25,000 people). The Territorial Planning Act of 2001 led to a significant change in the settlement network. This Act lays down well-defined criteria to change the administrative category of a settlement by local initiatives. Thus, after 2001 the number of towns increased. As the number of regional cities increased as well, there has been a need for creating new regions, and this need supports the process of the administrative-territorial reform. In Romania there is also a local need, according to which regions should be established on a historical basis.

Thomas De Graaff (p)

European cities have become increasingly more economically successful, demographically popular and socio-economically vibrant in the last decades. However, previous research has shown that this does not account equally for all cities in Europe. This variation in (economic) growth raised a large literature on policy instruments that could spur economic growth, such as investments in accessibility and public R&D, political stability and educational programs. However, not much research has been done on the robustness of these instruments and whether each instrument is equally applicable to each city. This paper shows that (i) most of the policy instruments are not very robust in their impact of economic growth, (ii) some instruments only work conditionally on specific region characteristics and other instruments, and, finally, that (iii) there is spatial heterogeneity in the effectiveness of most policy instruments.

Artem Korzhenevych (p)

Urbanization process in the Global South is characterized by the blurring of the boundaries between urban and rural areas. Managing this process has become increasingly complex due speed of transformation, and the lack of local institutional capacity. A phenomenon that exemplifies current trends is the emergence and rapid growth of census towns in India. This paper investigates informal urbanization in the form of census towns, taking the National Capital Region as a case study. Using the latest census data, urban growth in the different settlement categories is examined. Population growth rates in the census settlements are higher than in the formal settlements, even after controlling for their location. The analysis of infrastructure provision reveals a mixed picture: census towns are well endowed with civic infrastructure but poorly endowed with social infrastructure. The identified characteristics of urbanization raise concerns for planners tasked with sustainably managing projected urban growth in India.